Last week, we revised our economic and market forecasts as the war against the COVID-19 pandemic wages on. We are likely in recession now, though we won’t know that for sure until more timely data is released. What is clear, however, is stocks have priced in a recession. We offer our latest thoughts on the bottoming process and take a deeper dive into our updated economic and market forecasts.
As the coronavirus continues to scare global markets, it would be easy forget that the current bull market started 11 years ago today. Based on investing fundamentals, we continue to believe we’ll see a resumption of economic growth and a continuation of this bull market into at least 2021, but worries are building. We highlight three reasons this bull market is alive and well, and three reasons it could be on borrowed time.
After recording two double-digit drops in equity prices over the last three trading days, the global pandemic of COVID-19 has sent world equity markets into bear market territory. The result is a cumulative 30% drop in the S&P 500 Index in just under 30 days. Though daunting, once the market finds a bottom, which is where the index begins to consistently move higher than the previous market low—and we believe it is “when” not “if” the market finds a bottom—it may provide an attractive opportunity for long-term investors to consider adding risk to portfolios.
Stocks just suffered their worst week since the global financial crisis on coronavirus outbreak fears. Last week’s 11.5% drop in the S&P 500 Index brought the index into correction territory. We provide context for the sell‐off and discuss potential U.S. and global economic impacts of the outbreak, although this situation remains fluid, very uncertain, and even a bit scary.