While a potential Biden presidency may mean a shift from some pro-growth policies of the Trump administration, it’s possible any negative market impact may be muted. Economic forces tend to dominate policy, though policy still matters, and historically, markets and the economy have shown little preference for either Republican or Democratic leadership. While there are risks associated with potentially higher taxes and increased regulation, and specific industries may experience a meaningful impact from policy shifts, for markets overall, there’s a real possibility that it may be just business as usual.
One of the most difficult questions for investors to answer right now is how can the US economy be struggling so much while the stock market keeps churning higher? Even harder to answer questions are: When will that gap close and what will be the catalyst that starts to close it? We highlight some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect.
Corporate America delivered on expectations and then some during a second quarter earnings season that some are calling the biggest upside surprise ever. We recap the results, share five key takeaways for investors, and discuss our near-term outlook for stocks with the S&P 500 Index near record highs.
Real-time economic data continues to show a slowdown, at the same time we’re entering two months of the year that historically have been troublesome for stocks. Meanwhile, gold is breaking out to new all-time highs, confusing many as to what it all means. Stocks are likely due for a breather, but it isn’t out of the ordinary to see both gold and stocks trend higher together.
- Stalling Economic Recovery May Slow Stock Market Rally
- An Earnings Season to Forget
- Election Preview
- Five Reasons We Favor US Stocks
- Potential Path for Stocks in the Second Half
- Prospects for a Swoosh-Shaped Recovery
- Stocks Rally and Roll
- Earnings Season's Mixed Results
- Downside Risk Remains
- Big News and New Forecast